Remember that whole "war in Iraq" thing? How'd that turn out?

Not too good, according to this post by Juan Cole. Interestingly, it seems the level of insurgent attacks is the same as it was a year ago. Remember a year ago? When they were trying to pacify Fallujah?

My theory is that the Americans are going to bail out of Iraq and do so quietly, and, in another three to five years when the country is once again a mess, everyone will wonder what has happened. I can't remember who said it, but I recall someone say that a likely scenario for Iraq is something like Colombia today. That is, a somewhat functioning central government but one that cannot control vast parts of the country.