How will we know when to leave Afghanistan?

In respect I think the war in Iraq has to be easier than the war in Afghanistan. That is, at least in Iraq there is a sort of benchmark - that is to say no one can call the Iraq war a success until things are at least where they were when the war started. There was a rotten authoritarian government and a hated dictator, but at least there was some kind of civil society. You may have had to watch what you said, but at least you could go out in the streets. At the very least, the idea should be to get Iraq back to where it was. Increasingly I think that's all that the US will be able to manage - if that.

What about Afghanistan? Here we aren't starting with any elements of a modern society, instead there is a tribal culture that thrives on the opium trade. So when are things good enough in Afghanistan to pull out? More so than in Iraq, Afghanistan threatens to be war without end. The border with Pakistan will probably fester for some time to come, the Taliban's support will ebb and flow. We can dig all the irrigation ditches we want, we can rebuild whatever we want, none of that provides us with some kind of warranty against ideological defects.

In this vein it makes sense that neither Harper nor Hillier wants to talk about when to leave Afghanistan. As long as we are there, our military and political leaders can claim that they need our help. I doubt there will ever be an event that can clearly indicate that we are no longer needed. Mullah Omar is not going to walk into Kabul to sue for peace. In the meantime any call for a withdrawal date can be construed weakness. Make no mistake though, our withdrawal will be an arbitrary date, no matter who sets it or for what reason. There will be no neat conclusion of hostilities.