Up Next: bin Laden on the Dilapidation of Lower Manhatten Landmarks?

Why would anyone get Mike Harris to write a report on what's wrong with Toronto?

Not Exactly A Ringing Endorsement

John Tory got only 66.9% of the vote at the Ontario PC convention in London. In my mind there's the distinct possibility that this could lead to a protracted power struggle. It doesn't seem from the reports that Mr. Tory is ready to go quietly into the good night. Will the 2011 Ontario election be a contest between a Liberal government that may be starting to look a little shopworn and some Mike Harris clone? I'm starting to think that's a very likely scenario.

John Tory's Moment of Truth

This weekend is it for Tory, he's got convince the Ontario PCs that he ought to be leader or a leadership race will be triggered. I'm not a PC and I didn't support Tory for premier last fall, but I kind of want him to stay on. Have a moderate, reddish tory leading the PCs means that the politics in this province are not shifted to the right. The risk here is that the PCs will select another Harrisite to run the show.

Deep Blue Something

Last week this was my speculation on what would become of the Ontario PCs should they lose the election and should John Tory lose his seat:

"Right now I'm wondering if the mentality of the PCs will be that a moderate (Tory) didn't work nearly as well as a hardliner (Harris) and in light of that, they may go hunting for another deep blue type of leader."

Well, it appears that at least Stephen Taylor is thinking along those lines - and almost gleefully:

"If there's any hope that can come from the results of this election for conservatives, it is that PCs in Ontario will rebuild around offering Ontario clear and articulated conservative policies just in time for what may be a strong desire for change after four more years of McGuinty."

One can only wonder what those "clear and articulated conservative policies" might be - perhaps some sort of private healthcare (a Frank Klees favourite) or a more radical education platform, maybe a flat tax - but if the Liberals are starting to look a little shopworn in 2011, they may be coming to a Queen's Park near you.

The Tories After Tory(?)

I suppose it's not quite time to speculate about things like this, but what the hell. Suppose the numbers we are seeing now, in the very last days of the campaign hold until October 10th. In his first outing, John Tory will have had his ass handed to him. Sometimes a leader can shake this kind of thing off and have a second go at it - witness Dalton McGuinty. In John Tory's case though there is the additional prospect of him not winning a seat for himself in the legislature, if this came to pass it is hard to picture him continuing as leader of the PC Party.

Now assuming those two events come to pass, where do the Tories go from there. This is significant because in the past couple of decades provided you don't really make a mess of things, Ontario voters are prepared to give you a second term. No one party has pulled off more than two terms in government since the long reign of the big blue machine from the 1940s to the 1980s. What I'm getting at is that I always felt that Dalton's prospects were pretty good for a second term. Other than the health tax, he hasn't really done anything to piss off the voters. Getting third term though may be more difficult. Because of that reality, it's worth considering what kind of leader could replace Tory.

Right now I'm wondering if the mentality of the PCs will be that a moderate (Tory) didn't work nearly as well as a hardliner (Harris) and in light of that, they may go hunting for another deep blue type of leader. It may not be that way, hell, everything I said here is complete speculation. But it is worth considering what the progressive voters of this province may be up against in 2011.

Of course with MMP, the likelihood of this hypothetical hardliner getting a majority would be significantly reduced... But you knew I'd say that, didn't you?

Saving Private Tory

John Tory's platform now includes private healthcare?! First it was the schools, okay, I accept that we need to either extend funding to all religions or have just one school, those are really the only two consistent positions, Tory happened to pick the one I didn't really agree with. Now though he's playing footsie with private for-profit clinics.

There exists a real possibility that this may be the theme of a Tory government. The Liberals have exactly undone the Common Sense Revolution in any fundamental way, I doubt that there's further a PC government could go in the direction of tax cuts with serious anger in this province. Tory's going to advance another angle of the right-wing agenda. What next? Finishing the privatization of electricity in this province?

But he's got a "moderate" label and a bit more warmth than Harris, so that's what the Tories are hoping will save "private" Tory.

Toronto's Subway Woes

First it seemed like Giambrone was going to close it down, but now it appears that there will be consultations and the like before anything substantive is done. In other words we are at least six months away from closing a subway line. There is some discussion as to whether this was some kind of bluff, Giambrone said not on CBC radio last night. Of course if it was a bluff, it would not profit the TTC to say so. My gut instinct on this though is that there will be a way found to save the subway line. The sort of blow to Toronto's collective psyche from losing a whole subway line as well as the optics of a Kyoto-embracing city closing public transportation will keep the line open.

In the meantime this is going to be something that plays to the coming provincial election. John Tory promises that he will rebalance provincial-municipal roles and responsibilities (and their financial burdens) so that Toronto might have a prayer of affording to run a city. Like fixing healthcare on the federal scene this sounds like the type of thing were a great deal of meeting and accord-writing can happen without anything substantive getting done. I'm not sure how the, uh, Harris rump still in Tory's Tories will take to this plan to renege on their legacy.

Meanwhile Jason Cherniak is putting the blame on the city itself. I'm not sure I get where Cherniak is going though with his post, I'm not aware of Toronto spending all kinds of money on "tearing down highways" or any such thing. It's as though he forgot about the downloading mess that we were stuck with ten years ago. Or perhaps we need to read into Cherniak's line about "a bunch of politicians far too easily reelected year after year [that] are unable to get their bloody acts together" a slightly veiled criticism of the NDP members of Toronto City Council.