Carbon Tax!

If it means a cut in income taxes I wouldn't mind. My car is pretty fuel efficient and the fiancee doesn't drive so we wouldn't likely add a second a vehicle. In other words, I'd probably come out ahead in this game.

From a strategic point of view, I think Scott is right too, the grits might as well go down fighting. It would certainly toughen up Dion's image if he took a bold policy stance.

Beating a Dead Horse

Stephane Dion, go directly to an election, do not pass Go, do not collect $200, do not abstain from confidence motions. A mediocre budget, Cadscam, Brodiegate, what does it take? Does Stephen Harper need to defecate on the flag in the middle of the House of Commons while giving the finger to a Mountie? What? The Bloc and the NDP are ready, your own people have grown impatient. You can bring down the government, Stephane, as Rob Schneider says, you can do it! I've sort of sat on a progressive fence for a long time now, but damn it, I'm so tempted to explicitly join the NDP or the Greens in large part to register my dissatisfaction with this foot-dragging and equivocation.

Stop me if you've heard this one before

Shorter Stephane Dion: This government sucks, but we'll support them anyhow. When is this routine going to change? What will trigger an election?

One Thousand Times the Acceptable Risk

Linda Keen's testimony strikes me as far more credible than Gary Lunn's posturing about how he was saving lives by ignoring the warnings of the nuclear safety commission. My impression is that it is utterly shameful that this woman has been fired. Once again it's apparent that this is the Conservatives' moment of weakness.

M. Dion, Mr. Layton, bring down this government!

Stephen Harper, he's one thousand times the acceptable risk.

Is it time?

There have been a few occasion where myself and other bloggers have called for the toppling of the Conservative government, but few of these calls has been as forceful or coherent as Scott's pair of posts on the matter (aided by JimBobby) in the last couple of days.

I think they're onto something here, particularly with the prisoner transfer. A couple of ministries in Harper's government have always been embarrassments. The reality though is that Harper could get away with that at, say, Environment because no one who really cared about the environment was voting for him anyway.

Now though, we see confusion and gross incompetence in one of the files that Harper seems to be really concerned about, the war. Steve's ideas about Canada being "back" on the world stage (where did we go?), his desire to improve US relations, and his general yearning for a "tough" image were all bound up in the Afghan file.

And his people have messed it up, botched a cover-up, and generally made fools of themselves. How his communications people aren't unemployed is beyond me.

Harper has now exposed a great deal of weakness on what was thought to be one of his most well-guarded flanks.

Stephen Taylor is shocked! Shocked at the Liberal website!

According to Stephen Taylor, the Liberals may be using Photoshop! He documents the horror:

"A familiar technique has been used here to emphasize the dirty particulate colour of climate change (who knew that CO₂ was a sulfuric red/yellow/brown?)

The Liberals have modified an image of a smokestack in alarmist fashion with a sepia filter to exaggerate the evils of Canadian industry and economic production."

This is very bad since we all know that the Conservatives never alter any images on their website. Once again Stephen Taylor is distraught because other parties use the exact same political tools that his party uses. I'm sure that he longs for the day when every other party will roll over and play dead for him.

Shorter John Ivison

Dion's poverty plan won't be affordable because Steve Harper and his government says it won't. So there.

Minority Report

Despite all the talk about the message discipline and focus and accomplishments of Harper, despite all the accusations that the Liberals had a terrible leader in Dion, despite everything said by the Blogging Tories, Harper cannot put any daylight between himself and Dion.

The reality is that another election, barring someone really stepping in it, would probably produce either a thin Conservative or a thin Liberal minority.

Acting like a Prime Minister

Stephane Dion has stepped in to oppose the death penalty where Harper and his minions will not. It should again be apparent that Harper wishes a return to capital punishment. He lacks the courage, of course, to say so, but the mealy-mouthed responses of his lackeys ministers give me every reason to believe that Harper would support a return to the use of the death penalty.

Stephane Dion opposes the death penalty, I am clear on his stance. Does Stephen Harper oppose the death penalty? Will he say so unequivocally? I doubt it.

Details are a Bitch, Flaherty

The Star has an article today in which the TD Bank's chief economist - among others - points out how little anyone will actually receive from Flaherty's mini-budget tax cuts. Even though most low-income earners will receive very little from this benefit, the Conservatives can still go to the polls as "tax-cutters." They've even got a commercial to demonstrate how bad the Liberals would bungle the tax file: Dion is shrugging! Numbers! Uh-oh, the numbers keep going up! Out-of-context quote! Danger!

It is an insult to our intelligence that the Conservatives put these ads on the television. Were I, in some parallel universe, actually considering voting for the Conservatives I think the sort of intelligence-insulting adverts they put on would surely drive me away from them. Perhaps that's why they're stalled in the polls.

Update: Scott's take on the matter.

A One-Sided Game of Brinksmanship

Once again the Conservatives table some legislation that the Bloc and the NDP oppose. The Liberals oppose it too, but not enough to bring down the government over it. At this rate it appears that there is little that will push Dion into an election. Depending on who you talk to this either makes him a sage politician or a coward, but the net result is that we probably have no prospect for a federal election until the spring at the very earliest.

One wonders what Dion will finally agree is enough to bring down the government. It's not a mini-budget, it's not an extension of Afghanistan, what will it be? In the meantime the overall perception in the eyes of many voters may be that the man is too calculating.

Make no mistake, Harper wants an election

He played footsie with the idea with the throne speech, but now the Conservatives want to make their super-duper omnibus crime bill both a confidence vote and an all-or-nothing affair. Apparently Steve doesn't want any amendments or anything, take it or leave it. One wonders what (if anything) Steve will try to slip in there to make it unpalatable so that he can go to the polls hollering about a soft-on-crime opposition.

I'm not sure why this is a big priority for the Conservatives given that crime is on the decline. One of their spokespeople/strategists or what-have-you remarked that this would show that the Conservatives understood urban voters. This is of course based on an idiotic stereotype of urban life and the threat of crime in big cities. Toronto is not early-1980s New York, it's actually a fairly safe place compared to many other parts of Canada.

In related news, at least some Tory-sympathizers are upset that Dion didn't bring down the government. According to this post, this somehow renders Stephane Dion undemocratic. It ought to be plain now which side wants an election.

Unleash the Weasels!

Harper (to the surprise of no one) didn't make the throne speech so blatantly intolerable that a vote against it is inevitable. Instead, this morning his opponents are stuck dealing with a number of weasel-y statements that will trouble opposition.

He wants to leave Afghanistan but he needs just two more years until democracy rainbows shoot out of Karzai's eyes bringing peace and freedom to all Afghans. Come on! Just two years!

He's giving up on Kyoto because it can't be met anyway. Harper will really, really, totally fix this "so-called" problem. Soon. For real.

In both cases Harper did not go radical on anyone (he's keeping the crazy Reformers quiet - for now), yet even these still are opposite to positions already stated by the Liberals. So no, I don't think that were any poison pills per se. But Harper has weaseled in a number of ideas that may either force the hand of the Liberals or make them look like a bunch of flip-floppers.

Incidentally, Red Tory points out that the Conservative website had a very electionesque makeover.

Dion, don't sell out

I was meaning to do a post on this topic, but my thoughts have been captured fairly well here. If Dion wants to fight the "not a leader" meme, he should not back down from opposing the throne speech.

I know he will be rapped with the idea that he is wasting taxpayer's money by "causing" an election. This is the new talking point that the Conservatives are pushing - they want to govern and if there is an election, it's the fault of the opposition.

This is ridiculous. The Conservatives can count (I hope) and surely they are aware that they are in a minority situation. If they make a confidence bill that is unpalatable to the opposition, they will trigger an election. Dion needs to hit them hard on this point if he does trigger an election.

I'm gonna make them a throne speech they can't refuse

Isn't this just precious, Stephen Harper is putting on some kind of Godfather face in this picture. I suppose the ever-sympathetic National Post published this photo because it fits with the sort of stance that Harper is trying to project.

Once again I get the impression that Harper really wants an election sooner rather than later. I suspect he feels as though this is the time to hit the opposition parties. The fact that the Liberal party machine has turned into a bit of a gong show as of late probably gives Harper the impression that he has an opportunity to exploit right now.

He also has to be worried that his party has not been to pull away from the Liberals despite the Grits' very public woes. Nonetheless, I suspect his party figures now is the time to go. The only question is what will Harper do in the throne speech to render it unsupportable for all of the opposition parties. Of course the Post presents this as a "no-lose" strategy for Harper but that presumes that he would kill in any fall election. Given that he cannot put any daylight between himself and the Liberals I don't know that he can improve his standing in the parliament.

Outremont and the Liberal Party: Plus ca change...

There is this sort of meme now that Iggy is going to really go after Dion for the leadership job. It would be ludicrous if this happened. Part of what undid the Liberals 13 years in power was the sort of fratricidal undercurrent between Martin and Chretien. These new guys though, they can't even wait till they get into office. The party probably does not have enough time to install another new leader before an election. I don't have any strong feelings about the Liberal party, but this sort of infighting is what could potentially put Harper in majority territory.

Note to Stephen Taylor: When did the PM start having a "first family?"

Stephen Taylor of the Blogging Tories has written a post insisting that the Harper family is "ordinary" while Stephane Dion's family is not. As is fitting, this has been ridiculed as, well, a bit silly.

Let's set aside how completely stupid Taylor's main points are (Dion's wife kept her maiden name!) and consider Taylor's use of the term "first family" in discussion of the Harpers is well, a bit weird. When did we have a first family in this country? None of the prime ministers that I recall used this terminology. Mulroney didn't use it, neither did Chretien. If anything the "first" terminology is usually reserved for the head of state. Harper is the leader of the government, not the head of state.

Those who recall their civics lessons know that Lizzy Windsor is the head of state. I'd venture to say that Dion's family and Harper's family have a great deal more in common with each other than they do with Canada's real first family - those crazy Windsors.

Using Harper's Logic...

Cherniak has posted on Harper telling Dion that Dion's opinion on military matters is "irrelevant" because Dion has not served in the military.

By that logic, no one but teachers may comment on education, no one but police may comment on crime, no one but doctors may comment on healthcare, et cetera, indeed perhaps Harper will next suggest that only other Prime Ministers can critique him. What a stupid, stupid, cheap rhetorical trick.

Really, really important discovery!

Jason Cherniak has claimed (in this blog's comments section no less) that Stephane Dion is a Monty Python fan. For a pop culture nerd like me this is fascinating. We the anarcho-syndicalist peasants demand to know!

Desperate hook-ups and the sad man with the dog

Well, he of the sad dog is probably staying put. I hope he's not pouting for photo-ops today. Stephane Dion and Elizabeth May (it's everywhere in the Canadian blogosphere, I'm too lazy to link to it) have forged a little alliance against MacKay but I doubt it will unseat him. (Go to the results and do the math yourself.)

I can't help but feel as though the Dion-May thing was set up like a last-call one-night stand, all bets are off after the next election I suppose. That's not to say that such an agreement couldn't work - it just comes off as, I don't know, a tad desperate for both of them. I doubt it will have the longevity of the Harper-MacKay shotgun wedding of a few years back (an up-and-comer married into a storied old family for some respectability - and connections), and I'm not sure what, if any, results it will produce for either party at the ballot box.

In extending all these relationship metaphors, the NDP is playing the part of the sanctimonious single type - disgusted by its skanky acquaintances but secretly really REALLY hurt that no one asked it to roll in the hay. Even if it would have totally said "no" such an offer.