People who want a Harper majority predict that he will get it

If you read between the lines of this National Post article, it's fairly apparent that those who support Harper predict that he will get a majority. Says the Post,

"Canadians predict Stephen Harper and Hillary Clinton will win in national elections this year in their respective countries, but only one in three thinks the Conservative prime minister can break through and obtain a majority government, a national poll reveals."

One third, eh? How many Canadians support the Conservatives again?

"A Dec. 21 Ipsos-Reid horse race poll showed the Tories at 35% and the Grits at 33%."

Oh, so statistically 1/3 of Canadians. Maybe it's Liberal supporters that are filled with self-doubt that are making this prediction. Let's look at these numbers again:

"Respondents in Quebec gave Harper his slimmest chance of winning a majority -- only 26% expected a majority win --while those in Alberta, at 55%, predicted his greatest shot at winning control of the House of Commons."

So the province where Harper is most popular is also the province where they predict a majority - yep, I was right.

Minority Report

Despite all the talk about the message discipline and focus and accomplishments of Harper, despite all the accusations that the Liberals had a terrible leader in Dion, despite everything said by the Blogging Tories, Harper cannot put any daylight between himself and Dion.

The reality is that another election, barring someone really stepping in it, would probably produce either a thin Conservative or a thin Liberal minority.

I hope this is temporary

These poll numbers are not encouraging at all. Of course every week a new poll creates a whole new story, so I'm not too concerned - yet. I remain convinced though that a Conservative majority would ruin most of what I like about Canada.